Strategic Planning in Uncertain Economic Times

By: Pat Tabor, Swan Mountain Consulting 

Owners of Outdoor Recreation Companies (ORCs) commonly view business transition as a planned succession or exit. Many deliberately arrive at this stage of a business cycle—and welcome it, in fact yearn for it! But as economic uncertainty from the COVID-19 pandemic lingers, many owners suddenly face the challenge of transition planning in a time of crisis.

In any comprehensive planning process, the key to success is a thorough evaluation of the strategic, operational and financial impacts the crisis has brought about. Business owners and management must apply a rigorous process to identify and assess all scenarios facing the company and its people.


As the pandemic continues to evolve and affect the economy, an ORC will need to focus on the decisions that allow for a new way to deal with the public and the challenges of delivery and eventually allow for a business to adjust to the new playing field. Some of the items that require focus are:

Liquidity planning — Running out of cash can disrupt your workforce and erode your customer base. Rising costs of goods and labor is extreme and showing no signs of let up. You may have gained ground through the Federal programs, but will you quickly find yourself back in debt?

Scenario Planning — This process needs to expand beyond looking at a financial forecast. It should also gauge capital expenditure, workforce, marketing, information technology spend and debt-equity financing options. Focus immediately on cash flow needed internally in various scenarios. Also, use a waterfall of quarterly estimates through 2023 to calculate how your company would be affected. Remember that this planning doesn’t just take into account numbers, but it also considers the way an organization will operate. For example, if you have to scale back to 50% of your workforce, how would operations survive?

Communication — Make sure your employees are safe and protected as well as they can be. This is about keeping them out of harm’s way and facilitating their ability to navigate workforce disruptions. This is especially true for employees who are on the front line of your recreation service offerings. Devising ways to keep them informed and engaged will facilitate their return to work. Communication about the situation at the office and with the business in general, as well as information about employee benefit packages, is essential.

Protect Your Assets — This is not just physical assets but also intangible assets, such as the company’s relationships with employees, vendors, customers and bankers. Transparency will be your friend. Before making decisions about service cutbacks and other items, keep the long term in mind. Remember how hard it was to find qualified talent before COVID-19 disrupted the industry so dramatically?

Applying lessons of growth

After you have done what you can to protect your company, people and customers, start assessing where you will be after the pandemic and economic turmoil have subsided. Many things about your business and its employees’ interaction with your customers probably will have changed. Consider these three elements:

Delivery Channels — Assess how the procurement challenge will change how you interact with your customers or how you deliver your services. For example, most restaurants have been forced to provide only takeout or to-go service. Will their business ever be the same as it was before the great resignation? If they do get back to in-room dining capacity, will their customers still gravitate toward placing delivery and to-go orders? This requires reassessment of the business model and employment needs in the industry.

Human Resource “Upsizing” — Instead of rightsizing to retrench, provide more opportunities to cross-train and invest in talent if the needs arise. This last season likely caused your staff to fill roles they either were not trained for or had not historically performed. Some likely rose to the occasion while others did not. Those that did may find new opportunities elsewhere if you aren’t ready to train, develop and assist in expanding their skills. This is also a great opportunity to identify talent that could not be found prior to the pandemic to meet short- to mid-term demands.

Transition Planning — Some business owners will look back upon these last two years and believe they don’t have another busy season in them. This will compel many to consider transitioning ownership and leadership of their business to the next generation or a third party. The industry in fact is seeing widespread turnover at a rate never seen before. Assessing your goals and needs will be important because the correct time to transition could be now, before the next economic recovery. ORCs that formulate a multi-pronged strategy to endure initial disruptions and apply lessons to long-term potential growth areas will likely be positioned to thrive in the next economic cycle.

About the author

Pat Tabor is the founder and Managing Partner of Swan Mountain Consulting Group.  The firm specializes in providing high level consulting services to the outdoor recreation industry utilizing consultants that have “been there, done that”.  Visit

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